I used a simple fact about human behaviour to win that last round. When surprised with a stressful split-second decision, people have an overwhelming tendency to act rather than to hesitate. I knew he wouldn’t play rock, as that would have kept his hand still. I also knew he wouldn’t play scissors, since he’s smart enough to avoid taking a big risk without time to think. My plan was working perfectly. I needed to keep the pressure on. I didn’t even give him a second.

  “Keiko, please may I start the next round?”

  “Yes, that would be fine,” she replied.

  “What the hell is going on?! Wait a sec—”

  I cut him off.

  “Rock, paper, scissors, shoot!”

  “The attacker’s paper has beaten the defender’s rock. The attacker has earned 1 point. The attacker now has a total of 1.5 points. This concludes the second match of this game. 11253 points will be deposited into the attacker’s account. You now have 30 seconds to enter your bid for the next round. Please refrain from speaking until the bidding is over.”

  I knew he would play rock. It was the least expected option. With the little time he had to think, I figured an ego-driven individual like Yuto wouldn’t expect someone he saw as an "idiot" to predict such a careless decision. In other words, I’d correctly determined Yuto’s ‘play type’.

  I faked a smile as I saw the confusion and frustration spread across Yuto’s face. Even though we couldn’t speak, I needed him to understand how helpless he was in this situation.

  I turned my phone around to show him my bid of 2001 points.

  “Your 30 seconds are up. Please reveal your bids to each other. I can see the amounts you bid, so don’t lie.”

  I wanted to maintain the pressure. I instantly said “Well, we already know that I bid 2001 and that you bid 2000 points. Keiko, is it ok if we skip the formalities and get into it?”

  “I’ll just read out both bids. Akira, you bid 2001 points while Yuto bid 2000 points, so you won the right to attack”

  “In that case, let’s start the round”. I wasn’t giving him any time to think.

  “Wait a sec! How did you know what choices I’d make in the last match?”

  I continued to observe Yuto. I noted the beads of sweat on his forehead, his downcast eyes staring at the table and his clenched fist.

  He's losing it.

  This is the riskiest part of my plan.

  He's starting to debate whether the second round was a fluke, or if I'm actually better than him.

  If I knew more about Yuto, I would be able to predict his decisions with near certainty. Unfortunately, that's not the case here. That being said, I've been creating a situation to maximise my odds of winning since the start of the game. I'm gambling on the fact that Yuto thinks the second match was a fluke. I've been feeding into his superiority complex from the start of the game. Acting nervous, spilling the water, getting dominated in the first match.

  He wouldn't be able to fathom the possibility that I was acting all of that out. I don't think he has the self awareness to break out of this trap. If I'm right, I'll correctly read the rest of his decisions. There's no doubt about that. However, if I'm wrong, I could easily make a mistake that's too costly to come back from.

  Let's hope that Yuto doesn't have what it takes to surprise me.

  “Does it matter? Obviously that idiot that spilled the water was a show I was putting on.

  You thought you were in control this entire time?

  You weren’t.

  I was.

  It’s not worth my time explaining how I knew what you were going to do. We’re starting the next round now.” Keiko and Yuto both looked at me in shock.

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  These words were very harsh and I felt uncomfortable acting so arrogant, but I had to do it. This was the last step in setting my trap. I've spent the entirety of this game feeding into his superiority complex. This was my chance to exploit it by challenging him. I wanted him to think that I saw him in the same pathetic way he initially saw me. Instead of just gambling on him thinking the second round was a fluke, why not take the initiative and use his pride against him? He won’t be able to accept that I was in control this entire time, so I used that to manipulate him into thinking it was a fluke.

  If this works, he’ll double down on his arrogance and he’ll firmly believe the second round was a fluke. However, if I’m wrong and he catches me off guard, I’d be put in a very bad spot. I'm not 100% sure this would work, but now wasn't the time to doubt my decisions. I made a read on Yuto and created a plan around it that would maximise my odds of winning this game. There wasn't any point worrying about failure since that would just lead me to make mistakes.

  “Rock, Paper, Scissors, shoot!”

  “The attacker’s scissors beats the defender’s paper. The attacker has earned 0.5 points. The attacker now has a total of 0.5 points.

  When I challenged Yuto's superiority complex, I noticed him suck in some air as the corners of his lips rose, almost as though he was smiling out of frustration. When I said this, he had leaned back into his chair, keeping his hands clenched. I could sense that he was trying to maintain his composure. These contradictory signals of confidence but frustration told me everything I needed to know. He had convinced himself that he was better than me.

  That's why he leaned back in his chair and almost smiled. The fact that he kept his hands clenched showed me how much he despised hearing me act like I was better than him. This was confirmation that my plan had worked. My gamble had paid off. My read was right.

  Using my psychological read, it was painfully obvious there was no way he’d play scissors and risk going down 1-0. Even though he was feeling extremely confident, I just won the last match by earning one point in a single round when I beat his rock with my paper. He wouldn't risk losing an entire point in one round like that again.

  That meant he’d play rock or paper. If I only analysed his side of the equation, I wouldn’t be able to get anywhere. That’s why I had to figure out how he was analysing me. I showed him an aggressive, even delusional level of confidence. I just had to determine how he thought that would manifest. I was stuck in recursive thinking at first, but that’s when I realised it. He’d already shown me the answer.

  I started fueling his confidence before the first match even started. Then, when he was the attacker, he played rock and then paper. A hyper aggressive strategy, seeking to gain an entire point two rounds in a row. He could only do that because of his confidence. When I showed him my confidence, I reasoned that he would expect me to make the same move he did. That’s why he played paper to try and beat my rock.

  From this point onwards, the rest of the game would be trivial.

  “I want to start the next round. Is that ok, Keiko?”

  “That would be fine.”

  “Rock, paper, scissors, shoot!”

  I expected Yuto to start getting scared now that he was getting closer to the “do or die” moment. At the same time, I expected his ego and confidence to grow even greater. In fact, I was relying on it. I just earned 0.5 points because I thought Yuto wouldn't risk giving me one point in an entire round, but this was a different scenario.

  He could guarantee himself a victory if he prevented me from gaining any points this round. Additionally, giving up 0.5 points just puts him in a do or die situation in the next round again. Therefore, there's more reward and less relative risk for him to risk giving me an entire point compared to the previous round. Yuto's degree of overconfidence must stem from somewhere, so I reasoned that he was smart enough to figure out everything I just said.

  The difference between us is that once he reaches a conclusion like that, he fails to anticipate that his opponent would reach the same conclusion. His superiority complex would make him blind to the idea that I calculated that far ahead as well. He knew that rock would look like an unnecessary and massive risk to a clueless opponent, so he wouldn't see a world where I ever anticipated he would play rock.

  This was one of the levers I built my entire plan on. By acting incompetent, I’d perfectly masked my playing type, and now, I had the perfect opportunity to win by playing against it. That's why I was confident enough to put the game on the line and go with paper.

  If he played scissors, he could guarantee himself a win in the next round. But if I was right, there would be no next round. I would win right here, right now. For a second, a part of me was worried that despite everything I said, Yuto’s fear would stop him from playing rock. But no - this wasn’t just about winning. I replayed everything in my mind. From spilling the water, to losing the first round, to challenging his ego.

  I had played every move perfectly, manipulating him into this corner.

  If I let fear creep in now, I could lose this game, and I don’t know what consequences await me. I couldn’t let that happen.

  His ego had to win out. He had to play rock.

  And I had to trust in everything I’d set up.

  Please, play rock.

  The atmosphere was suffocating. The tension was palpable. We both stared at what the other had played, waiting for Keiko to speak.

  “The attacker’s paper defeats the defender’s rock. The attacker has earned 1 point. The attacker now has a total of 1.5 points. This concludes the game. After the corresponding number of points are deposited into your accounts, the defender will have 4547 points in their account while the attacker will have 15453 points in their account. Please follow me.” Keiko put her phone away as she finished announcing the game’s conclusion. She began walking towards the door so I stood up and followed.

  “What the actual hell was that?” I turned around to see Yuto standing firm with clenched hands.