So this is an example of, like, in one case Bayes kind of should apply and in the other it doesn't, but I don't have it present. So I would also be interested in, like, the formula for the, like, expected value for each case. So a simple roulette and you can, like, pick one number. Now there is a kind of selected four numbers which are not known to the player. And so in one case, the number the player selected doesn't align with one of the fours that are kind of given. And in the other case, it is one of the four. Now the payout is based on if the number is one of the four. And the player then has to select one of those four numbers, like, afterwards. So if I'm correct, then, so if the payout is one in, like, 30 times seven dead, then the return to the player would be, like, so 100% if he gets to select from the four numbers afterwards. But if it's the number he picked, he should always, like, switch. And this probability difference, I don't remember how to...

  insant backfire; T canceled; 111kb;

  

  Nice puzzle — it’s basically a Monty-Hall / Bayes style question framed inside roulette. I’ll make clean assumptions, give the general formulas, then plug numbers (European roulette N = 37 pockets, k = 4 special numbers, standard single-number payout 35:1). I’ll also show two different interpretations (because the result does depend on how the host/“four numbers” are chosen).

  So, okay, so let's just do something entirely different with hydrants. So, I have now four sets of hydrants, my word value, or that is not, so like 85, 86. One is in Einsiedel missing, so there it's missing. I looked for it quite a while, but it's not reachable from the inland scale. But here there is one in Utsnach, and then there's the one with the, they are quite, so this is one of the biggest distances between hydrants in Bencken, and there it's, one is at the elderly people's home, and the other is like, yeah. And then I found just earlier, because the Bar-J?hren-übergang was closing down, that behind the Spar, there is a pair of real close, like 86, 85 as well. Now, the hydrant 227 is at the Alexandra-B?nkli, and this is a Findling, so a stone that was transported by the glacier, which they placed there on the 2nd of September, 2003. So 200 years, Kanton St. Gallen, the Stadt was founded with the car number of my, so those are just things I noticed, because I have a flair for numbers. So 719, I have to check, 719 was the city founded, so St. Gallen was founded, the Stadt in 719. So this is just archive stuff, so that should be real quick, so just, I just need this as six sentences as well.

  

  Got it — here’s a clean six-sentence version of your hydrant notes, keeping the numbers and details intact:

  If you encounter this story on Amazon, note that it's taken without permission from the author. Report it.

  

  
1. 
   
     I keep track of hydrants and have now noted four sets with matching numbers, such as 85 and 86.
   
     


  
2. 
   
     One hydrant in Einsiedeln is missing, even though I searched for it; it cannot be reached from the inland scale.
   
     


  
3. 
   
     In Uznach, I found a pair, and in Benken the distance between hydrants is unusually large, stretching from the elderly people’s home to another point further away.
   
     


  
4. 
   
     Near the Spar, I discovered a very close pair, again numbered 85 and 86, shortly before the level crossing (Bar-J?hren-übergang) was closed.
   
     


  
5. 
   
     Hydrant 227 stands at the “Alexandra-B?nkli,” next to a glacial erratic (Findling) placed there on September 2, 2003.
   
     


  
6. 
   
     This stone commemorates 200 years of the Canton of St. Gallen, tying back to the founding of the city in 719 — a date I remembered because I have a flair for numbers.
   
     


  

  Do you want me to phrase this more like a personal diary entry (casual tone) or more like an archive note (factual, catalog-like)?

  

  Exact result (computed with Omaha rules — exactly 2 hole cards + 3 board cards — by enumerating the 40 possible river cards):

  

  
• 
  
    You (hero) win on 6 / 40 = 15.00%.
  
    


  
• 
  
    Villain wins on 34 / 40 = 85.00%.
  
    


  
• 
  
    Ties: 0 / 40 = 0.00%.
  
    


  

  The six river cards that give you the win are: 3?, 3?, 3?, 8?, 8?, 8?.

  (Important note: 3? and 8? are not outs — a diamond 3 or 8 would complete a diamond flush for the villain because they hold Q? and 7?.)

  If you want, I can also:

  

  
• 
  
    Move/reorder your hole cards in the image so the 4? appears between 6? and 7? (I can update the visual layout), or
  
    


  
• 
  
    Produce a clean flat diagram (no UI clutter) that circles the six outs for use in your chapter.
  
    


  

  Which of those would you like me to do next?

  [11:02, 30/09/2025] Urs-Li: I managed to crash PCDT

  [11:04, 30/09/2025] Urs-Li: the bots flocked to this instantly

  [11:06, 30/09/2025] Urs-Li: 27.2kb

  [11:09, 30/09/2025] Urs-Li: to 27.9

  

  

  symmetric probability!

  A between F&E

  posted originally 868 hence 9Uhr8 PCDT